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Chacaritas vs Duros del Balon — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Chacaritas
Chacaritas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Duros del Balon
Duros del Balon
Y. Nazareno 26'
J. Rodriguez 1'
R. Cabezas 90+5'
11/8/2020Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 17Estadio de Pelileo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Chacaritas44%
×Draw27%
Duros del Balon29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chacaritas
1.39
Duros del Balon
1.07

Chacaritas creates 30% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 45 away

creates per match

Chacaritas
1.25
Duros del Balon
0.96

allows per match

Chacaritas
1.18
Duros del Balon
1.53

finishing

Chacaritas+0.00on par
Duros del Balon+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chacaritas ↓

Duros del Balon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Chacaritas or draw
71%
Chacaritas or Duros del Balon
73%
Draw or Duros del Balon
56%

Winning margin

Chacaritas wins by 2+
21%
Duros del Balon wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Chacaritas 1+ goals
75%
Chacaritas 2+ goals
40%
Chacaritas 3+ goals
16%
Duros del Balon 1+ goals
66%
Duros del Balon 2+ goals
29%
Duros del Balon 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chacaritas (draw refunded)
60%
Duros del Balon (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chacaritas at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.18 · 97 matches

Duros del Balon away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chacaritas attack 1.25 + Duros del Balon defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.39

Duros del Balon attack 0.96 + Chacaritas defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chacaritas scores more
44%
level
27%
Duros del Balon scores more
29%

Chacaritas at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chacaritas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
J. Rodriguez
26'
Y. Nazareno
90+5'
R. Cabezas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Chacaritas 2–1 Duros del Balon

Chacaritas beat Duros del Balon 2-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on November 8, 2020.

Goals: J. Rodriguez (1'), Y. Nazareno (26'), R. Cabezas (90+5').

The match was played at Estadio de Pelileo in Pelileo.