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Chacaritas vs CD Olmedo — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Chacaritas
Chacaritas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CD Olmedo
CD Olmedo
4/7/2022Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 5Estadio de Pelileo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Chacaritas37%
×Draw29%
CD Olmedo34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chacaritas
1.16
CD Olmedo
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 42 away

creates per match

Chacaritas
1.25
CD Olmedo
1.02

allows per match

Chacaritas
1.18
CD Olmedo
1.07

finishing

Chacaritas+0.00on par
CD Olmedo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chacaritas ↓

CD Olmedo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Chacaritas or draw
66%
Chacaritas or CD Olmedo
71%
Draw or CD Olmedo
63%

Winning margin

Chacaritas wins by 2+
15%
CD Olmedo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chacaritas 1+ goals
69%
Chacaritas 2+ goals
32%
Chacaritas 3+ goals
11%
CD Olmedo 1+ goals
67%
CD Olmedo 2+ goals
30%
CD Olmedo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Chacaritas (draw refunded)
52%
CD Olmedo (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chacaritas at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.18 · 97 matches

CD Olmedo away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.07 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chacaritas attack 1.25 + CD Olmedo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

CD Olmedo attack 1.02 + Chacaritas defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Chacaritas scores more
37%
level
29%
CD Olmedo scores more
34%

Chacaritas at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Chacaritas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Chacaritas 1–0 CD Olmedo

Chacaritas beat CD Olmedo 1-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on April 7, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio de Pelileo in Pelileo.