Chacaritas 0–2 America de Quito: Result & Stats

Chacaritas

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

America de Quito

J. Ruiz 56'

J. Folleco 48'

9/24/2022

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 29Estadio de Pelileo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Chacaritas40%

×Draw28%

America de Quito32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChacaritasExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Quito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.11

Chacaritas

1.27

America de Quito

1.11

Chacaritas creates 14% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 85 away

1.25

creates per match

1.05

1.18

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Chacaritas

1.25

America de Quito

1.05

allows per match

Chacaritas

1.18

America de Quito

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chacaritas+0.00on par

America de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chacaritas ↓

America de Quito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Chacaritas or draw

68%

Chacaritas or America de Quito

72%

Draw or America de Quito

60%

Winning margin

Chacaritas wins by 2+

18%

America de Quito wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Chacaritas 1+ goals

72%

Chacaritas 2+ goals

36%

Chacaritas 3+ goals

14%

America de Quito 1+ goals

67%

America de Quito 2+ goals

30%

America de Quito 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Chacaritas (draw refunded)

55%

America de Quito (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chacaritas at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.18 · 97 matches

America de Quito away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.28 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chacaritas attack 1.25 + America de Quito defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

America de Quito attack 1.05 + Chacaritas defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chacaritas scores more

40%

level

28%

America de Quito scores more

32%

Chacaritas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chacaritas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

J. Folleco

56'

J. Ruiz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff