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Chacarita Juniors vs San Miguel — Primera Nacional 2026

Chacarita Juniors
Chacarita Juniors
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
San Miguel
San Miguel
2/16/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 3Estadio de Chacarita Juniors

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Chacarita Juniors42%
×Draw31%
San Miguel27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chacarita Juniors
1.09
San Miguel
0.81

Chacarita Juniors creates 35% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 48 away

creates per match

Chacarita Juniors
1.12
San Miguel
0.56

allows per match

Chacarita Juniors
1.06
San Miguel
1.06

finishing

Chacarita Juniors+0.00on par
San Miguel+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chacarita Juniors ↓

San Miguel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Chacarita Juniors or draw
73%
Chacarita Juniors or San Miguel
69%
Draw or San Miguel
58%

Winning margin

Chacarita Juniors wins by 2+
17%
San Miguel wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chacarita Juniors 1+ goals
66%
Chacarita Juniors 2+ goals
30%
Chacarita Juniors 3+ goals
10%
San Miguel 1+ goals
56%
San Miguel 2+ goals
19%
San Miguel 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Chacarita Juniors (draw refunded)
61%
San Miguel (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chacarita Juniors at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.06 · 124 matches

San Miguel away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.06 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chacarita Juniors attack 1.12 + San Miguel defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

San Miguel attack 0.56 + Chacarita Juniors defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chacarita Juniors scores more
42%
level
31%
San Miguel scores more
27%

Chacarita Juniors at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chacarita Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chacarita Juniors vs San Miguel

Chacarita Juniors and San Miguel drew 1-1 in Primera Nacional on February 16, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio de Chacarita Juniors in General San Martín, Provincia de Buenos Aires.