Chacarita Juniors 0–2 Defensores De Belgrano

Chacarita Juniors

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Defensores De Belgrano

7/6/2025

Primera Nacional · Round 21Estadio de Chacarita Juniors

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Chacarita Juniors35%

×Draw31%

Defensores De Belgrano34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chacarita JuniorsExpected goals in this matchDefensores De Belgrano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.00

Chacarita Juniors

1.03

Defensores De Belgrano

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 124 home / 128 away

1.12

creates per match

0.95

1.06

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Chacarita Juniors

1.12

Defensores De Belgrano

0.95

allows per match

Chacarita Juniors

1.06

Defensores De Belgrano

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chacarita Juniors+0.00on par

Defensores De Belgrano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chacarita Juniors ↓

Defensores De Belgrano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Chacarita Juniors or draw

66%

Chacarita Juniors or Defensores De Belgrano

69%

Draw or Defensores De Belgrano

65%

Winning margin

Chacarita Juniors wins by 2+

14%

Defensores De Belgrano wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Chacarita Juniors 1+ goals

64%

Chacarita Juniors 2+ goals

28%

Chacarita Juniors 3+ goals

9%

Defensores De Belgrano 1+ goals

63%

Defensores De Belgrano 2+ goals

26%

Defensores De Belgrano 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Chacarita Juniors (draw refunded)

51%

Defensores De Belgrano (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chacarita Juniors at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.06 · 124 matches

Defensores De Belgrano away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.93 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chacarita Juniors attack 1.12 + Defensores De Belgrano defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.03

Defensores De Belgrano attack 0.95 + Chacarita Juniors defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Chacarita Juniors scores more

35%

level

31%

Defensores De Belgrano scores more

34%

Chacarita Juniors at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Chacarita Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff