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Chabab RIF Hoceima vs Rapide Oued ZEM — Botola Pro 2025

Chabab RIF Hoceima
Chabab RIF Hoceima
FT
2 – 2
Rapide Oued ZEM
Rapide Oued ZEM
12/4/2018Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 10Stade de football d'Imzouren (Imzouren)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima40%
×Draw28%
Rapide Oued ZEM32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.25
Rapide Oued ZEM
1.09

Chabab RIF Hoceima creates 15% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

creates per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.27
Rapide Oued ZEM
0.72

allows per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.47
Rapide Oued ZEM
1.23

finishing

Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par
Rapide Oued ZEM+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab RIF Hoceima ↓

Rapide Oued ZEM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Chabab RIF Hoceima or draw
68%
Chabab RIF Hoceima or Rapide Oued ZEM
72%
Draw or Rapide Oued ZEM
60%

Winning margin

Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+
18%
Rapide Oued ZEM wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals
71%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals
36%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals
13%
Rapide Oued ZEM 1+ goals
66%
Rapide Oued ZEM 2+ goals
30%
Rapide Oued ZEM 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)
55%
Rapide Oued ZEM (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab RIF Hoceima at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Rapide Oued ZEM away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.23 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 1.27 + Rapide Oued ZEM defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Rapide Oued ZEM attack 0.72 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more
40%
level
28%
Rapide Oued ZEM scores more
32%

Chabab RIF Hoceima at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chabab RIF Hoceima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Chabab RIF Hoceima 2–2 Rapide Oued ZEM

Chabab RIF Hoceima and Rapide Oued ZEM drew 2-2 in Botola Pro on December 4, 2018.

The match was played at Stade de football d'Imzouren (Imzouren).