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Chabab RIF Hoceima vs Raja Casablanca — Botola Pro 2025

Chabab RIF Hoceima
Chabab RIF Hoceima
FT
1 – 2
Raja Casablanca
Raja Casablanca
4/10/2019Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 16Stade Mimoun Al Arsi (Al Hoceima)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima29%
×Draw27%
Raja Casablanca44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.10
Raja Casablanca
1.41

Raja Casablanca creates 28% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 121 away

creates per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.27
Raja Casablanca
1.34

allows per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.47
Raja Casablanca
0.94

finishing

Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par
Raja Casablanca+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab RIF Hoceima ↓

Raja Casablanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Chabab RIF Hoceima or draw
56%
Chabab RIF Hoceima or Raja Casablanca
73%
Draw or Raja Casablanca
71%

Winning margin

Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+
11%
Raja Casablanca wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals
67%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals
30%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals
10%
Raja Casablanca 1+ goals
76%
Raja Casablanca 2+ goals
41%
Raja Casablanca 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)
40%
Raja Casablanca (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab RIF Hoceima at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Raja Casablanca away — creates 1.34, concedes 0.94 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 1.27 + Raja Casablanca defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.10

Raja Casablanca attack 1.34 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more
29%
level
27%
Raja Casablanca scores more
44%

Raja Casablanca at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Raja Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Chabab RIF Hoceima 1–2 Raja Casablanca

Raja Casablanca beat Chabab RIF Hoceima 2-1 in Botola Pro on April 10, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Mimoun Al Arsi (Al Hoceima).