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Chabab RIF Hoceima vs Olympique Safi — Botola Pro 2025

Chabab RIF Hoceima
Chabab RIF Hoceima
FT
1 – 1
Olympique Safi
Olympique Safi
3/16/2019Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 22Stade Mimoun Al Arsi (Al Hoceima)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima38%
×Draw27%
Olympique Safi35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.28
Olympique Safi
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 120 away

creates per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.27
Olympique Safi
0.96

allows per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.47
Olympique Safi
1.29

finishing

Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par
Olympique Safi+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab RIF Hoceima ↓

Olympique Safi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Chabab RIF Hoceima or draw
65%
Chabab RIF Hoceima or Olympique Safi
73%
Draw or Olympique Safi
62%

Winning margin

Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+
17%
Olympique Safi wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals
72%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals
37%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals
14%
Olympique Safi 1+ goals
70%
Olympique Safi 2+ goals
34%
Olympique Safi 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)
52%
Olympique Safi (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab RIF Hoceima at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Olympique Safi away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 1.27 + Olympique Safi defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.28

Olympique Safi attack 0.96 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more
38%
level
27%
Olympique Safi scores more
35%

Chabab RIF Hoceima at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chabab RIF Hoceima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Chabab RIF Hoceima 1–1 Olympique Safi

Chabab RIF Hoceima and Olympique Safi drew 1-1 in Botola Pro on March 16, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Mimoun Al Arsi (Al Hoceima).