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Chabab RIF Hoceima vs Ittihad Tanger — Botola Pro 2025

Chabab RIF Hoceima
Chabab RIF Hoceima
FT
2 – 3
Ittihad Tanger
Ittihad Tanger
3/3/2019Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 20Stade Mimoun Al Arsi (Al Hoceima)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima40%
×Draw27%
Ittihad Tanger33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.33
Ittihad Tanger
1.18

Chabab RIF Hoceima creates 13% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 120 away

creates per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.27
Ittihad Tanger
0.89

allows per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.47
Ittihad Tanger
1.39

finishing

Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par
Ittihad Tanger+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab RIF Hoceima ↓

Ittihad Tanger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Chabab RIF Hoceima or draw
67%
Chabab RIF Hoceima or Ittihad Tanger
73%
Draw or Ittihad Tanger
60%

Winning margin

Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+
18%
Ittihad Tanger wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals
74%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals
38%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals
15%
Ittihad Tanger 1+ goals
69%
Ittihad Tanger 2+ goals
33%
Ittihad Tanger 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)
55%
Ittihad Tanger (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab RIF Hoceima at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Ittihad Tanger away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.39 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 1.27 + Ittihad Tanger defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.33

Ittihad Tanger attack 0.89 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more
40%
level
27%
Ittihad Tanger scores more
33%

Chabab RIF Hoceima at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chabab RIF Hoceima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chabab RIF Hoceima vs Ittihad Tanger

Ittihad Tanger beat Chabab RIF Hoceima 3-2 in Botola Pro on March 3, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Mimoun Al Arsi (Al Hoceima).