Chabab RIF Hoceima 2–3 Chabab Atl. Khenifra

Chabab RIF Hoceima

FT

2 – 3

Chabab Atl. Khenifra

10/5/2020

Botola 2 · Round 29Stade Mimoun Al Arsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima40%

×Draw29%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chabab RIF HoceimaExpected goals in this matchChabab Atl. Khenifra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.99

Chabab RIF Hoceima

1.17

Chabab Atl. Khenifra

0.99

Chabab RIF Hoceima creates 18% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 120 away

1.13

creates per match

0.79

1.20

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima

1.13

Chabab Atl. Khenifra

0.79

allows per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima

1.20

Chabab Atl. Khenifra

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par

Chabab Atl. Khenifra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab RIF Hoceima ↓

Chabab Atl. Khenifra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Chabab RIF Hoceima or draw

69%

Chabab RIF Hoceima or Chabab Atl. Khenifra

71%

Draw or Chabab Atl. Khenifra

60%

Winning margin

Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+

17%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals

69%

Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals

33%

Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals

11%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra 1+ goals

63%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra 2+ goals

26%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)

56%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab RIF Hoceima at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Chabab Atl. Khenifra away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.22 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 1.13 + Chabab Atl. Khenifra defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Chabab Atl. Khenifra attack 0.79 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more

40%

level

29%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra scores more

31%

Chabab RIF Hoceima at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chabab RIF Hoceima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff