Chabab Mohammédia 0–0 Sidi Kacem: Result & Stats

Chabab Mohammédia

FT

0 – 0

Sidi Kacem

10/5/2020

Botola 2 · Round 29Stade Al Bachir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Chabab Mohammédia42%

×Draw28%

Sidi Kacem30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chabab MohammédiaExpected goals in this matchSidi Kacem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.05

Chabab Mohammédia

1.31

Sidi Kacem

1.05

Chabab Mohammédia creates 25% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

1.30

creates per match

0.87

1.23

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Chabab Mohammédia

1.30

Sidi Kacem

0.87

allows per match

Chabab Mohammédia

1.23

Sidi Kacem

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chabab Mohammédia+0.00on par

Sidi Kacem+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Mohammédia ↓

Sidi Kacem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Chabab Mohammédia or draw

70%

Chabab Mohammédia or Sidi Kacem

72%

Draw or Sidi Kacem

58%

Winning margin

Chabab Mohammédia wins by 2+

19%

Sidi Kacem wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Chabab Mohammédia 1+ goals

73%

Chabab Mohammédia 2+ goals

38%

Chabab Mohammédia 3+ goals

14%

Sidi Kacem 1+ goals

65%

Sidi Kacem 2+ goals

28%

Sidi Kacem 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Chabab Mohammédia (draw refunded)

59%

Sidi Kacem (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Mohammédia at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Sidi Kacem away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Mohammédia attack 1.30 + Sidi Kacem defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sidi Kacem attack 0.87 + Chabab Mohammédia defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chabab Mohammédia scores more

42%

level

28%

Sidi Kacem scores more

30%

Chabab Mohammédia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chabab Mohammédia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff