Chabab Mohammédia 0–0 Riadi Salmi: Result & Stats

Chabab Mohammédia

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Riadi Salmi

10/4/2024

Botola Pro · Round 5Stade El Bachir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Chabab Mohammédia35%

×Draw28%

Riadi Salmi37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chabab MohammédiaExpected goals in this matchRiadi Salmi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.21

Chabab Mohammédia

1.16

Riadi Salmi

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 61 away

0.87

creates per match

0.97

1.44

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Chabab Mohammédia

0.87

Riadi Salmi

0.97

allows per match

Chabab Mohammédia

1.44

Riadi Salmi

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chabab Mohammédia+0.00on par

Riadi Salmi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Mohammédia ↓

Riadi Salmi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Chabab Mohammédia or draw

63%

Chabab Mohammédia or Riadi Salmi

72%

Draw or Riadi Salmi

65%

Winning margin

Chabab Mohammédia wins by 2+

14%

Riadi Salmi wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Chabab Mohammédia 1+ goals

69%

Chabab Mohammédia 2+ goals

32%

Chabab Mohammédia 3+ goals

11%

Riadi Salmi 1+ goals

70%

Riadi Salmi 2+ goals

34%

Riadi Salmi 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Chabab Mohammédia (draw refunded)

48%

Riadi Salmi (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Mohammédia at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.44 · 75 matches

Riadi Salmi away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.44 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Mohammédia attack 0.87 + Riadi Salmi defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.16

Riadi Salmi attack 0.97 + Chabab Mohammédia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Chabab Mohammédia scores more

35%

level

28%

Riadi Salmi scores more

37%

Riadi Salmi at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Riadi Salmi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff