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Chabab Mohammédia vs Renaissance Berkane — Botola Pro 2025

Chabab Mohammédia
Chabab Mohammédia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Renaissance Berkane
Renaissance Berkane
12/28/2023Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 13Stade El Bachir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Chabab Mohammédia26%
×Draw29%
Renaissance Berkane44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab Mohammédia
0.88
Renaissance Berkane
1.23

Renaissance Berkane creates 40% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 120 away

creates per match

Chabab Mohammédia
0.87
Renaissance Berkane
1.02

allows per match

Chabab Mohammédia
1.44
Renaissance Berkane
0.88

finishing

Chabab Mohammédia+0.00on par
Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Mohammédia ↓

Renaissance Berkane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Chabab Mohammédia or draw
56%
Chabab Mohammédia or Renaissance Berkane
71%
Draw or Renaissance Berkane
74%

Winning margin

Chabab Mohammédia wins by 2+
9%
Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Chabab Mohammédia 1+ goals
59%
Chabab Mohammédia 2+ goals
22%
Chabab Mohammédia 3+ goals
6%
Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals
71%
Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals
35%
Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Chabab Mohammédia (draw refunded)
37%
Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Mohammédia at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.44 · 75 matches

Renaissance Berkane away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.88 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Mohammédia attack 0.87 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.88

Renaissance Berkane attack 1.02 + Chabab Mohammédia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chabab Mohammédia scores more
26%
level
29%
Renaissance Berkane scores more
44%

Renaissance Berkane at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Renaissance Berkane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chabab Mohammédia vs Renaissance Berkane

Chabab Mohammédia and Renaissance Berkane drew 1-1 in Botola Pro on December 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stade El Bachir in Mohammédia.