Chabab Mohammédia 0–1 Raja Casablanca

Chabab Mohammédia

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Raja Casablanca

4/7/2024

Cup · Round of 16Stade El Bachir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Chabab Mohammédia27%

×Draw25%

Raja Casablanca48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chabab MohammédiaExpected goals in this matchRaja Casablanca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.56

Chabab Mohammédia

1.09

Raja Casablanca

1.56

Raja Casablanca creates 43% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.33

creates per match

1.29

1.83

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Chabab Mohammédia

1.33

Raja Casablanca

1.29

allows per match

Chabab Mohammédia

1.83

Raja Casablanca

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chabab Mohammédia+0.00on par

Raja Casablanca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Mohammédia ↓

Raja Casablanca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Chabab Mohammédia or draw

52%

Chabab Mohammédia or Raja Casablanca

75%

Draw or Raja Casablanca

73%

Winning margin

Chabab Mohammédia wins by 2+

10%

Raja Casablanca wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Chabab Mohammédia 1+ goals

66%

Chabab Mohammédia 2+ goals

30%

Chabab Mohammédia 3+ goals

10%

Raja Casablanca 1+ goals

79%

Raja Casablanca 2+ goals

46%

Raja Casablanca 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Chabab Mohammédia (draw refunded)

36%

Raja Casablanca (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Mohammédia at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Raja Casablanca away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Mohammédia attack 1.33 + Raja Casablanca defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.09

Raja Casablanca attack 1.29 + Chabab Mohammédia defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chabab Mohammédia scores more

27%

level

25%

Raja Casablanca scores more

48%

Raja Casablanca at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Raja Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff