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Chabab Mohammédia vs Olympique Safi — Botola Pro 2025

Chabab Mohammédia
Chabab Mohammédia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Olympique Safi
Olympique Safi
2/21/2024Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 20Stade El Bachir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Chabab Mohammédia33%
×Draw28%
Olympique Safi39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab Mohammédia
1.08
Olympique Safi
1.20

Olympique Safi creates 11% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 120 away

creates per match

Chabab Mohammédia
0.87
Olympique Safi
0.96

allows per match

Chabab Mohammédia
1.44
Olympique Safi
1.29

finishing

Chabab Mohammédia+0.00on par
Olympique Safi+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Mohammédia ↓

Olympique Safi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Chabab Mohammédia or draw
61%
Chabab Mohammédia or Olympique Safi
72%
Draw or Olympique Safi
67%

Winning margin

Chabab Mohammédia wins by 2+
13%
Olympique Safi wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Chabab Mohammédia 1+ goals
66%
Chabab Mohammédia 2+ goals
29%
Chabab Mohammédia 3+ goals
10%
Olympique Safi 1+ goals
70%
Olympique Safi 2+ goals
34%
Olympique Safi 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chabab Mohammédia (draw refunded)
46%
Olympique Safi (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Mohammédia at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.44 · 75 matches

Olympique Safi away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Mohammédia attack 0.87 + Olympique Safi defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.08

Olympique Safi attack 0.96 + Chabab Mohammédia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chabab Mohammédia scores more
33%
level
28%
Olympique Safi scores more
39%

Olympique Safi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Olympique Safi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chabab Mohammédia vs Olympique Safi

Chabab Mohammédia beat Olympique Safi 1-0 in Botola Pro on February 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stade El Bachir in Mohammédia.