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Chabab Mohammédia vs Moghreb Tetouan — Botola 2 2025

Chabab Mohammédia
Chabab Mohammédia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Moghreb Tetouan
Moghreb Tetouan
4/4/2026Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 21Stade El Bachir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Chabab Mohammédia34%
×Draw28%
Moghreb Tetouan38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab Mohammédia
1.10
Moghreb Tetouan
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Chabab Mohammédia
1.30
Moghreb Tetouan
1.13

allows per match

Chabab Mohammédia
1.23
Moghreb Tetouan
0.90

finishing

Chabab Mohammédia+0.00on par
Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Mohammédia ↓

Moghreb Tetouan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Chabab Mohammédia or draw
62%
Chabab Mohammédia or Moghreb Tetouan
72%
Draw or Moghreb Tetouan
66%

Winning margin

Chabab Mohammédia wins by 2+
13%
Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Chabab Mohammédia 1+ goals
67%
Chabab Mohammédia 2+ goals
30%
Chabab Mohammédia 3+ goals
10%
Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals
69%
Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals
33%
Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chabab Mohammédia (draw refunded)
47%
Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Mohammédia at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Moghreb Tetouan away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Mohammédia attack 1.30 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.10

Moghreb Tetouan attack 1.13 + Chabab Mohammédia defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chabab Mohammédia scores more
34%
level
28%
Moghreb Tetouan scores more
38%

Moghreb Tetouan at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Moghreb Tetouan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Chabab Mohammédia 1–0 Moghreb Tetouan

Chabab Mohammédia beat Moghreb Tetouan 1-0 in Botola 2 on April 4, 2026.

The match was played at Stade El Bachir in Mohammedia.