Chabab Mohammédia 2–2 Ittihad Khemisset

Chabab Mohammédia

FT

2 – 2

Ittihad Khemisset

7/26/2020

Botola 2 · Round 23Stade Al Bachir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Chabab Mohammédia40%

×Draw27%

Ittihad Khemisset32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chabab MohammédiaExpected goals in this matchIttihad Khemisset

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.13

Chabab Mohammédia

1.29

Ittihad Khemisset

1.13

Chabab Mohammédia creates 14% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 75 away

1.30

creates per match

1.03

1.23

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Chabab Mohammédia

1.30

Ittihad Khemisset

1.03

allows per match

Chabab Mohammédia

1.23

Ittihad Khemisset

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chabab Mohammédia+0.00on par

Ittihad Khemisset+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Mohammédia ↓

Ittihad Khemisset →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Chabab Mohammédia or draw

68%

Chabab Mohammédia or Ittihad Khemisset

73%

Draw or Ittihad Khemisset

60%

Winning margin

Chabab Mohammédia wins by 2+

18%

Ittihad Khemisset wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Chabab Mohammédia 1+ goals

72%

Chabab Mohammédia 2+ goals

37%

Chabab Mohammédia 3+ goals

14%

Ittihad Khemisset 1+ goals

68%

Ittihad Khemisset 2+ goals

31%

Ittihad Khemisset 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chabab Mohammédia (draw refunded)

55%

Ittihad Khemisset (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Mohammédia at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Ittihad Khemisset away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.27 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Mohammédia attack 1.30 + Ittihad Khemisset defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Ittihad Khemisset attack 1.03 + Chabab Mohammédia defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chabab Mohammédia scores more

40%

level

27%

Ittihad Khemisset scores more

32%

Chabab Mohammédia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chabab Mohammédia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff