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Chabab Mohammédia vs FUS Rabat — Botola Pro 2025

Chabab Mohammédia
Chabab Mohammédia
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FUS Rabat
FUS Rabat
3/1/2024Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 22Stade El Bachir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Chabab Mohammédia28%
×Draw29%
FUS Rabat44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab Mohammédia
0.95
FUS Rabat
1.27

FUS Rabat creates 34% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 120 away

creates per match

Chabab Mohammédia
0.87
FUS Rabat
1.09

allows per match

Chabab Mohammédia
1.44
FUS Rabat
1.02

finishing

Chabab Mohammédia+0.00on par
FUS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Mohammédia ↓

FUS Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Chabab Mohammédia or draw
56%
Chabab Mohammédia or FUS Rabat
71%
Draw or FUS Rabat
72%

Winning margin

Chabab Mohammédia wins by 2+
10%
FUS Rabat wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Chabab Mohammédia 1+ goals
61%
Chabab Mohammédia 2+ goals
25%
Chabab Mohammédia 3+ goals
7%
FUS Rabat 1+ goals
72%
FUS Rabat 2+ goals
36%
FUS Rabat 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Chabab Mohammédia (draw refunded)
39%
FUS Rabat (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Mohammédia at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.44 · 75 matches

FUS Rabat away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Mohammédia attack 0.87 + FUS Rabat defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.95

FUS Rabat attack 1.09 + Chabab Mohammédia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chabab Mohammédia scores more
28%
level
29%
FUS Rabat scores more
44%

FUS Rabat at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FUS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Chabab Mohammédia 0–1 FUS Rabat

FUS Rabat beat Chabab Mohammédia 1-0 in Botola Pro on March 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stade El Bachir in Mohammédia.