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Chabab Mohammédia vs FAR Rabat — Botola Pro 2025

Chabab Mohammédia
Chabab Mohammédia
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
FAR Rabat
FAR Rabat
8/30/2024Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 1Stade El Bachir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Chabab Mohammédia24%
×Draw27%
FAR Rabat49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab Mohammédia
0.90
FAR Rabat
1.42

FAR Rabat creates 58% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 120 away

creates per match

Chabab Mohammédia
0.87
FAR Rabat
1.40

allows per match

Chabab Mohammédia
1.44
FAR Rabat
0.92

finishing

Chabab Mohammédia+0.00on par
FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Mohammédia ↓

FAR Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Chabab Mohammédia or draw
51%
Chabab Mohammédia or FAR Rabat
73%
Draw or FAR Rabat
76%

Winning margin

Chabab Mohammédia wins by 2+
8%
FAR Rabat wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Chabab Mohammédia 1+ goals
59%
Chabab Mohammédia 2+ goals
23%
Chabab Mohammédia 3+ goals
6%
FAR Rabat 1+ goals
76%
FAR Rabat 2+ goals
41%
FAR Rabat 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Chabab Mohammédia (draw refunded)
33%
FAR Rabat (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Mohammédia at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.44 · 75 matches

FAR Rabat away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.92 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Mohammédia attack 0.87 + FAR Rabat defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.90

FAR Rabat attack 1.40 + Chabab Mohammédia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chabab Mohammédia scores more
24%
level
27%
FAR Rabat scores more
49%

FAR Rabat at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chabab Mohammédia vs FAR Rabat

FAR Rabat beat Chabab Mohammédia 5-0 in Botola Pro on August 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stade El Bachir in Mohammédia.