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Chabab Mohammédia vs Chabab RIF Hoceima — Botola 2 2025

Chabab Mohammédia
Chabab Mohammédia
FT
2 – 1
Chabab RIF Hoceima
Chabab RIF Hoceima
9/29/2019Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 3Stade Al Bachir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chabab Mohammédia50%
×Draw27%
Chabab RIF Hoceima23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab Mohammédia
1.39
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.85

Chabab Mohammédia creates 64% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Chabab Mohammédia
1.30
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.47

allows per match

Chabab Mohammédia
1.23
Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.47

finishing

Chabab Mohammédia+0.00on par
Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Mohammédia ↓

Chabab RIF Hoceima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Chabab Mohammédia or draw
77%
Chabab Mohammédia or Chabab RIF Hoceima
73%
Draw or Chabab RIF Hoceima
50%

Winning margin

Chabab Mohammédia wins by 2+
24%
Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Chabab Mohammédia 1+ goals
75%
Chabab Mohammédia 2+ goals
40%
Chabab Mohammédia 3+ goals
16%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals
57%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals
21%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Chabab Mohammédia (draw refunded)
68%
Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Mohammédia at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Mohammédia attack 1.30 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.39

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 0.47 + Chabab Mohammédia defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chabab Mohammédia scores more
50%
level
27%
Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more
23%

Chabab Mohammédia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chabab Mohammédia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Chabab Mohammédia 2–1 Chabab RIF Hoceima

Chabab Mohammédia beat Chabab RIF Hoceima 2-1 in Botola 2 on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Al Bachir in Mohammédia.