Chabab Ben Guerir 1–3 Wydad Fès: Result & Stats

Chabab Ben Guerir

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Wydad Fès

N. Moustaghfir 59'

Unknown 90+5', 51'

O. Mourrahi 1'

4/24/2025

Botola 2 · Round 24Stade Municipal Ben Guerir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Chabab Ben Guerir43%

×Draw32%

Wydad Fès26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chabab Ben GuerirExpected goals in this matchWydad Fès

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.78

Chabab Ben Guerir

1.09

Wydad Fès

0.78

Chabab Ben Guerir creates 40% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 118 away

0.91

creates per match

0.81

0.74

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Chabab Ben Guerir

0.91

Wydad Fès

0.81

allows per match

Chabab Ben Guerir

0.74

Wydad Fès

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chabab Ben Guerir+0.00on par

Wydad Fès+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Ben Guerir ↓

Wydad Fès →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Chabab Ben Guerir or draw

74%

Chabab Ben Guerir or Wydad Fès

68%

Draw or Wydad Fès

57%

Winning margin

Chabab Ben Guerir wins by 2+

17%

Wydad Fès wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Chabab Ben Guerir 1+ goals

66%

Chabab Ben Guerir 2+ goals

30%

Chabab Ben Guerir 3+ goals

10%

Wydad Fès 1+ goals

54%

Wydad Fès 2+ goals

18%

Wydad Fès 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Chabab Ben Guerir (draw refunded)

62%

Wydad Fès (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Ben Guerir at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.74 · 118 matches

Wydad Fès away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.27 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Ben Guerir attack 0.91 + Wydad Fès defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.09

Wydad Fès attack 0.81 + Chabab Ben Guerir defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Chabab Ben Guerir scores more

43%

level

32%

Wydad Fès scores more

26%

Chabab Ben Guerir at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Chabab Ben Guerir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

O. Mourrahi

51'

59'

N. Moustaghfir

90+5'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff