Chabab Ben Guerir 0–1 Olympique Khouribga

Chabab Ben Guerir

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Olympique Khouribga

1/5/2025

Botola 2 · Round 12Stade Municipal Ben Guerir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Chabab Ben Guerir42%

×Draw30%

Olympique Khouribga28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chabab Ben GuerirExpected goals in this matchOlympique Khouribga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.87

Chabab Ben Guerir

1.13

Olympique Khouribga

0.87

Chabab Ben Guerir creates 30% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 45 away

0.93

creates per match

1.00

0.74

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Chabab Ben Guerir

0.93

Olympique Khouribga

1.00

allows per match

Chabab Ben Guerir

0.74

Olympique Khouribga

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chabab Ben Guerir+0.00on par

Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Ben Guerir ↓

Olympique Khouribga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Chabab Ben Guerir or draw

72%

Chabab Ben Guerir or Olympique Khouribga

70%

Draw or Olympique Khouribga

58%

Winning margin

Chabab Ben Guerir wins by 2+

17%

Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Chabab Ben Guerir 1+ goals

68%

Chabab Ben Guerir 2+ goals

31%

Chabab Ben Guerir 3+ goals

11%

Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals

58%

Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals

22%

Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Chabab Ben Guerir (draw refunded)

60%

Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Ben Guerir at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.74 · 120 matches

Olympique Khouribga away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Ben Guerir attack 0.93 + Olympique Khouribga defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.13

Olympique Khouribga attack 1.00 + Chabab Ben Guerir defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chabab Ben Guerir scores more

42%

level

30%

Olympique Khouribga scores more

28%

Chabab Ben Guerir at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chabab Ben Guerir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff