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Chabab Ben Guerir vs Kawkab Marrakech — Botola 2 2025

Chabab Ben Guerir
Chabab Ben Guerir
FT
0 – 1
Kawkab Marrakech
Kawkab Marrakech
4/22/2022Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 26Stade Municipal Ben Guerir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Chabab Ben Guerir39%
×Draw33%
Kawkab Marrakech28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab Ben Guerir
0.96
Kawkab Marrakech
0.77

Chabab Ben Guerir creates 25% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 75 away

creates per match

Chabab Ben Guerir
0.93
Kawkab Marrakech
0.79

allows per match

Chabab Ben Guerir
0.74
Kawkab Marrakech
0.99

finishing

Chabab Ben Guerir+0.00on par
Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Ben Guerir ↓

Kawkab Marrakech →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Chabab Ben Guerir or draw
72%
Chabab Ben Guerir or Kawkab Marrakech
67%
Draw or Kawkab Marrakech
61%

Winning margin

Chabab Ben Guerir wins by 2+
14%
Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chabab Ben Guerir 1+ goals
62%
Chabab Ben Guerir 2+ goals
25%
Chabab Ben Guerir 3+ goals
7%
Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals
54%
Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals
18%
Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Chabab Ben Guerir (draw refunded)
58%
Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Ben Guerir at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.74 · 120 matches

Kawkab Marrakech away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.99 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Ben Guerir attack 0.93 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.96

Kawkab Marrakech attack 0.79 + Chabab Ben Guerir defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chabab Ben Guerir scores more
39%
level
33%
Kawkab Marrakech scores more
28%

Chabab Ben Guerir at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chabab Ben Guerir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Chabab Ben Guerir 0–1 Kawkab Marrakech

Kawkab Marrakech beat Chabab Ben Guerir 1-0 in Botola 2 on April 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Ben Guerir in Ben Guerir.