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Chabab Ben Guerir vs Kasba Tadla — Botola 2 2025

Chabab Ben Guerir
Chabab Ben Guerir
FT
0 – 0
Kasba Tadla
Kasba Tadla
1/19/2019Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 16Stade Municipal (Kelâat Es-Sraghna (El Kelaa des Srarhna))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chabab Ben Guerir46%
×Draw34%
Kasba Tadla20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab Ben Guerir
1.03
Kasba Tadla
0.57

Chabab Ben Guerir creates 81% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 15 away

creates per match

Chabab Ben Guerir
0.93
Kasba Tadla
0.40

allows per match

Chabab Ben Guerir
0.74
Kasba Tadla
1.13

finishing

Chabab Ben Guerir+0.00on par
Kasba Tadla+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Ben Guerir ↓

Kasba Tadla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–112%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Chabab Ben Guerir or draw
80%
Chabab Ben Guerir or Kasba Tadla
66%
Draw or Kasba Tadla
54%

Winning margin

Chabab Ben Guerir wins by 2+
19%
Kasba Tadla wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Chabab Ben Guerir 1+ goals
64%
Chabab Ben Guerir 2+ goals
28%
Chabab Ben Guerir 3+ goals
9%
Kasba Tadla 1+ goals
43%
Kasba Tadla 2+ goals
11%
Kasba Tadla 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Chabab Ben Guerir (draw refunded)
70%
Kasba Tadla (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Ben Guerir at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.74 · 120 matches

Kasba Tadla away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Ben Guerir attack 0.93 + Kasba Tadla defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.03

Kasba Tadla attack 0.40 + Chabab Ben Guerir defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chabab Ben Guerir scores more
46%
level
34%
Kasba Tadla scores more
20%

Chabab Ben Guerir at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chabab Ben Guerir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Chabab Ben Guerir 0–0 Kasba Tadla

Chabab Ben Guerir and Kasba Tadla drew 0-0 in Botola 2 on January 19, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Municipal (Kelâat Es-Sraghna (El Kelaa des Srarhna)).