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Chabab Ben Guerir vs Chabab RIF Hoceima — Botola 2 2025

Chabab Ben Guerir
Chabab Ben Guerir
FT
3 – 1
Chabab RIF Hoceima
Chabab RIF Hoceima
12/14/2019Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 12Stade Municipal Ben Guerir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chabab Ben Guerir51%
×Draw31%
Chabab RIF Hoceima19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab Ben Guerir
1.20
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.60

Chabab Ben Guerir creates 100% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 15 away

creates per match

Chabab Ben Guerir
0.93
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.47

allows per match

Chabab Ben Guerir
0.74
Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.47

finishing

Chabab Ben Guerir+0.00on par
Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Ben Guerir ↓

Chabab RIF Hoceima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Chabab Ben Guerir or draw
81%
Chabab Ben Guerir or Chabab RIF Hoceima
69%
Draw or Chabab RIF Hoceima
49%

Winning margin

Chabab Ben Guerir wins by 2+
23%
Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Chabab Ben Guerir 1+ goals
70%
Chabab Ben Guerir 2+ goals
34%
Chabab Ben Guerir 3+ goals
12%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals
45%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals
12%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Chabab Ben Guerir (draw refunded)
73%
Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Ben Guerir at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.74 · 120 matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Ben Guerir attack 0.93 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.20

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 0.47 + Chabab Ben Guerir defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Chabab Ben Guerir scores more
51%
level
31%
Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more
19%

Chabab Ben Guerir at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Chabab Ben Guerir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chabab Ben Guerir vs Chabab RIF Hoceima

Chabab Ben Guerir beat Chabab RIF Hoceima 3-1 in Botola 2 on December 14, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Ben Guerir in Ben Guerir.