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Chabab Atl. Khenifra vs USM Oujda — Botola 2 2025

Chabab Atl. Khenifra
Chabab Atl. Khenifra
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
USM Oujda
USM Oujda
3/2/2025Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 19Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Chabab Atl. Khenifra46%
×Draw30%
USM Oujda23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab Atl. Khenifra
1.20
USM Oujda
0.76

Chabab Atl. Khenifra creates 58% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 75 away

creates per match

Chabab Atl. Khenifra
1.02
USM Oujda
0.71

allows per match

Chabab Atl. Khenifra
0.80
USM Oujda
1.37

finishing

Chabab Atl. Khenifra+0.00on par
USM Oujda+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Atl. Khenifra ↓

USM Oujda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Chabab Atl. Khenifra or draw
77%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra or USM Oujda
70%
Draw or USM Oujda
54%

Winning margin

Chabab Atl. Khenifra wins by 2+
21%
USM Oujda wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Chabab Atl. Khenifra 1+ goals
70%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra 2+ goals
34%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra 3+ goals
12%
USM Oujda 1+ goals
53%
USM Oujda 2+ goals
18%
USM Oujda 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Chabab Atl. Khenifra (draw refunded)
66%
USM Oujda (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Atl. Khenifra at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.80 · 120 matches

USM Oujda away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.37 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Atl. Khenifra attack 1.02 + USM Oujda defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.20

USM Oujda attack 0.71 + Chabab Atl. Khenifra defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chabab Atl. Khenifra scores more
46%
level
30%
USM Oujda scores more
23%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chabab Atl. Khenifra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chabab Atl. Khenifra vs USM Oujda

Chabab Atl. Khenifra beat USM Oujda 2-0 in Botola 2 on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Khénifra.