Chabab Atl. Khenifra 0–1 Stade Marocain

Chabab Atl. Khenifra

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stade Marocain

10/20/2024

Botola 2 · Round 3Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Chabab Atl. Khenifra42%

×Draw31%

Stade Marocain26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chabab Atl. KhenifraExpected goals in this matchStade Marocain

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.81

Chabab Atl. Khenifra

1.11

Stade Marocain

0.81

Chabab Atl. Khenifra creates 37% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 90 away

1.02

creates per match

0.81

0.80

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Chabab Atl. Khenifra

1.02

Stade Marocain

0.81

allows per match

Chabab Atl. Khenifra

0.80

Stade Marocain

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chabab Atl. Khenifra+0.00on par

Stade Marocain+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Atl. Khenifra ↓

Stade Marocain →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Chabab Atl. Khenifra or draw

74%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra or Stade Marocain

69%

Draw or Stade Marocain

58%

Winning margin

Chabab Atl. Khenifra wins by 2+

18%

Stade Marocain wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Chabab Atl. Khenifra 1+ goals

67%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra 2+ goals

30%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra 3+ goals

10%

Stade Marocain 1+ goals

56%

Stade Marocain 2+ goals

19%

Stade Marocain 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Chabab Atl. Khenifra (draw refunded)

62%

Stade Marocain (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Atl. Khenifra at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.80 · 120 matches

Stade Marocain away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.20 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Atl. Khenifra attack 1.02 + Stade Marocain defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.11

Stade Marocain attack 0.81 + Chabab Atl. Khenifra defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chabab Atl. Khenifra scores more

42%

level

31%

Stade Marocain scores more

26%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chabab Atl. Khenifra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff