Chabab Atl. Khenifra 0–0 Sidi Kacem: Result & Stats

Chabab Atl. Khenifra

FT

0 – 0

Sidi Kacem

12/1/2019

Botola 2 · Round 10Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Chabab Atl. Khenifra44%

×Draw30%

Sidi Kacem26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chabab Atl. KhenifraExpected goals in this matchSidi Kacem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.83

Chabab Atl. Khenifra

1.18

Sidi Kacem

0.83

Chabab Atl. Khenifra creates 42% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 30 away

1.02

creates per match

0.87

0.80

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Chabab Atl. Khenifra

1.02

Sidi Kacem

0.87

allows per match

Chabab Atl. Khenifra

0.80

Sidi Kacem

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chabab Atl. Khenifra+0.00on par

Sidi Kacem+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Atl. Khenifra ↓

Sidi Kacem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Chabab Atl. Khenifra or draw

74%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra or Sidi Kacem

70%

Draw or Sidi Kacem

56%

Winning margin

Chabab Atl. Khenifra wins by 2+

19%

Sidi Kacem wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Chabab Atl. Khenifra 1+ goals

69%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra 2+ goals

33%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra 3+ goals

12%

Sidi Kacem 1+ goals

56%

Sidi Kacem 2+ goals

20%

Sidi Kacem 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Chabab Atl. Khenifra (draw refunded)

63%

Sidi Kacem (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Atl. Khenifra at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.80 · 120 matches

Sidi Kacem away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Atl. Khenifra attack 1.02 + Sidi Kacem defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.18

Sidi Kacem attack 0.87 + Chabab Atl. Khenifra defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chabab Atl. Khenifra scores more

44%

level

30%

Sidi Kacem scores more

26%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chabab Atl. Khenifra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff