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Chabab Atl. Khenifra vs Olympique Khouribga — Botola 2 2025

Chabab Atl. Khenifra
Chabab Atl. Khenifra
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Olympique Khouribga
Olympique Khouribga
11/4/2023Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 9Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Chabab Atl. Khenifra42%
×Draw30%
Olympique Khouribga28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab Atl. Khenifra
1.18
Olympique Khouribga
0.90

Chabab Atl. Khenifra creates 31% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 45 away

creates per match

Chabab Atl. Khenifra
1.02
Olympique Khouribga
1.00

allows per match

Chabab Atl. Khenifra
0.80
Olympique Khouribga
1.33

finishing

Chabab Atl. Khenifra+0.00on par
Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Atl. Khenifra ↓

Olympique Khouribga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Chabab Atl. Khenifra or draw
72%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra or Olympique Khouribga
70%
Draw or Olympique Khouribga
58%

Winning margin

Chabab Atl. Khenifra wins by 2+
18%
Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chabab Atl. Khenifra 1+ goals
69%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra 2+ goals
33%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra 3+ goals
12%
Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals
59%
Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals
23%
Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Chabab Atl. Khenifra (draw refunded)
60%
Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Atl. Khenifra at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.80 · 120 matches

Olympique Khouribga away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Atl. Khenifra attack 1.02 + Olympique Khouribga defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.18

Olympique Khouribga attack 1.00 + Chabab Atl. Khenifra defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chabab Atl. Khenifra scores more
42%
level
30%
Olympique Khouribga scores more
28%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chabab Atl. Khenifra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chabab Atl. Khenifra vs Olympique Khouribga

Olympique Khouribga beat Chabab Atl. Khenifra 1-0 in Botola 2 on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Khénifra.