Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cha Choeng Sao vs Nakhon Pathom — League Cup 2021

Cha Choeng Sao
Cha Choeng Sao
FT
2 – 3
Nakhon Pathom
Nakhon Pathom
10/19/2022League CupLeague Cup · Play-offsStadium Chachoengsao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Cha Choeng Sao14%
×Draw20%
Nakhon Pathom66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cha Choeng Sao
0.88
Nakhon Pathom
2.13

Nakhon Pathom creates 142% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Cha Choeng Sao
1.00
Nakhon Pathom
2.75

allows per match

Cha Choeng Sao
1.50
Nakhon Pathom
0.75

finishing

Cha Choeng Sao+0.00on par
Nakhon Pathom+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cha Choeng Sao ↓

Nakhon Pathom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Cha Choeng Sao or draw
34%
Cha Choeng Sao or Nakhon Pathom
80%
Draw or Nakhon Pathom
86%

Winning margin

Cha Choeng Sao wins by 2+
5%
Nakhon Pathom wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Cha Choeng Sao 1+ goals
59%
Cha Choeng Sao 2+ goals
22%
Cha Choeng Sao 3+ goals
6%
Nakhon Pathom 1+ goals
88%
Nakhon Pathom 2+ goals
63%
Nakhon Pathom 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Cha Choeng Sao (draw refunded)
18%
Nakhon Pathom (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cha Choeng Sao at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Nakhon Pathom away — creates 2.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cha Choeng Sao attack 1.00 + Nakhon Pathom defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Nakhon Pathom attack 2.75 + Cha Choeng Sao defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Cha Choeng Sao scores more
14%
level
20%
Nakhon Pathom scores more
66%

Nakhon Pathom at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Nakhon Pathom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cha Choeng Sao vs Nakhon Pathom

Nakhon Pathom beat Cha Choeng Sao 3-2 in League Cup on October 19, 2022.

The match was played at Stadium Chachoengsao in Chachoengsao.