CFR Pforzheim 0–4 SV Linx: Result & Stats

CFR Pforzheim

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

SV Linx

5/21/2022

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 36Stadion im Brötzinger Tal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

CFR Pforzheim60%

×Draw19%

SV Linx22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CFR PforzheimExpected goals in this matchSV Linx

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.46

CFR Pforzheim

2.50

SV Linx

1.46

CFR Pforzheim creates 71% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 25 away

2.39

creates per match

1.52

1.39

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

CFR Pforzheim

2.39

SV Linx

1.52

allows per match

CFR Pforzheim

1.39

SV Linx

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CFR Pforzheim+0.00on par

SV Linx+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFR Pforzheim ↓

SV Linx →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

CFR Pforzheim or draw

78%

CFR Pforzheim or SV Linx

81%

Draw or SV Linx

40%

Winning margin

CFR Pforzheim wins by 2+

39%

SV Linx wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

CFR Pforzheim 1+ goals

92%

CFR Pforzheim 2+ goals

71%

CFR Pforzheim 3+ goals

45%

SV Linx 1+ goals

77%

SV Linx 2+ goals

43%

SV Linx 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

CFR Pforzheim (draw refunded)

73%

SV Linx (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFR Pforzheim at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.39 · 93 matches

SV Linx away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.60 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFR Pforzheim attack 2.39 + SV Linx defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.50

SV Linx attack 1.52 + CFR Pforzheim defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

CFR Pforzheim scores more

60%

level

19%

SV Linx scores more

22%

CFR Pforzheim at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "CFR Pforzheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff