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CFR Pforzheim vs Mutschelbach — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

CFR Pforzheim
CFR Pforzheim
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mutschelbach
Mutschelbach
2/24/2024Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 20KRAMSKI-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

CFR Pforzheim56%
×Draw20%
Mutschelbach24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CFR Pforzheim
2.38
Mutschelbach
1.53

CFR Pforzheim creates 56% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 34 away

creates per match

CFR Pforzheim
2.39
Mutschelbach
1.68

allows per match

CFR Pforzheim
1.39
Mutschelbach
2.38

finishing

CFR Pforzheim+0.00on par
Mutschelbach+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFR Pforzheim ↓

Mutschelbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

CFR Pforzheim or draw
76%
CFR Pforzheim or Mutschelbach
80%
Draw or Mutschelbach
44%

Winning margin

CFR Pforzheim wins by 2+
35%
Mutschelbach wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

CFR Pforzheim 1+ goals
91%
CFR Pforzheim 2+ goals
68%
CFR Pforzheim 3+ goals
42%
Mutschelbach 1+ goals
78%
Mutschelbach 2+ goals
45%
Mutschelbach 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

CFR Pforzheim (draw refunded)
70%
Mutschelbach (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFR Pforzheim at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.39 · 93 matches

Mutschelbach away — creates 1.68, concedes 2.38 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFR Pforzheim attack 2.39 + Mutschelbach defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.38

Mutschelbach attack 1.68 + CFR Pforzheim defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

CFR Pforzheim scores more
56%
level
20%
Mutschelbach scores more
24%

CFR Pforzheim at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "CFR Pforzheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CFR Pforzheim vs Mutschelbach

CFR Pforzheim beat Mutschelbach 3-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at KRAMSKI-Arena in Pforzheim.