CFR Pforzheim 2–1 Ilshofen: Result & Stats

CFR Pforzheim

FT

2 – 1

Ilshofen

8/22/2020

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 1Stadion im Brötzinger Tal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

CFR Pforzheim65%

×Draw17%

Ilshofen17%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CFR PforzheimExpected goals in this matchIlshofen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.62

1.29

CFR Pforzheim

2.62

Ilshofen

1.29

CFR Pforzheim creates 103% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 25 away

2.39

creates per match

1.20

1.39

allows per match

2.84

creates per match

CFR Pforzheim

2.39

Ilshofen

1.20

allows per match

CFR Pforzheim

1.39

Ilshofen

2.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CFR Pforzheim+0.00on par

Ilshofen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFR Pforzheim ↓

Ilshofen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

CFR Pforzheim or draw

83%

CFR Pforzheim or Ilshofen

83%

Draw or Ilshofen

35%

Winning margin

CFR Pforzheim wins by 2+

44%

Ilshofen wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

CFR Pforzheim 1+ goals

93%

CFR Pforzheim 2+ goals

73%

CFR Pforzheim 3+ goals

48%

Ilshofen 1+ goals

72%

Ilshofen 2+ goals

37%

Ilshofen 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

CFR Pforzheim (draw refunded)

79%

Ilshofen (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFR Pforzheim at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.39 · 93 matches

Ilshofen away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.84 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFR Pforzheim attack 2.39 + Ilshofen defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 2.62

Ilshofen attack 1.20 + CFR Pforzheim defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

CFR Pforzheim scores more

65%

level

17%

Ilshofen scores more

17%

CFR Pforzheim at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "CFR Pforzheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff