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CFR Pforzheim vs Freiburger FC — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

CFR Pforzheim
CFR Pforzheim
FT
0 – 1
Freiburger FC
Freiburger FC
8/14/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 2Stadion im Brötzinger Tal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

CFR Pforzheim59%
×Draw20%
Freiburger FC21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CFR Pforzheim
2.23
Freiburger FC
1.25

CFR Pforzheim creates 78% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 42 away

creates per match

CFR Pforzheim
2.39
Freiburger FC
1.12

allows per match

CFR Pforzheim
1.39
Freiburger FC
2.07

finishing

CFR Pforzheim+0.00on par
Freiburger FC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFR Pforzheim ↓

Freiburger FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

CFR Pforzheim or draw
79%
CFR Pforzheim or Freiburger FC
80%
Draw or Freiburger FC
41%

Winning margin

CFR Pforzheim wins by 2+
37%
Freiburger FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CFR Pforzheim 1+ goals
89%
CFR Pforzheim 2+ goals
65%
CFR Pforzheim 3+ goals
38%
Freiburger FC 1+ goals
71%
Freiburger FC 2+ goals
36%
Freiburger FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

CFR Pforzheim (draw refunded)
74%
Freiburger FC (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFR Pforzheim at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.39 · 93 matches

Freiburger FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.07 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFR Pforzheim attack 2.39 + Freiburger FC defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.23

Freiburger FC attack 1.12 + CFR Pforzheim defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

CFR Pforzheim scores more
59%
level
20%
Freiburger FC scores more
21%

CFR Pforzheim at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "CFR Pforzheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: CFR Pforzheim 0–1 Freiburger FC

Freiburger FC beat CFR Pforzheim 1-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion im Brötzinger Tal in Pforzheim.