CFR 1907 Cluj 2–1 Viitorul Constanta

CFR 1907 Cluj

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Viitorul Constanta

2/4/2021

Liga I · Round 21Stadionul Dr. Constantin Rădulescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

CFR 1907 Cluj50%

×Draw26%

Viitorul Constanta23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CFR 1907 ClujExpected goals in this matchViitorul Constanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.91

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.48

Viitorul Constanta

0.91

CFR 1907 Cluj creates 63% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 59 away

1.81

creates per match

1.07

0.74

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.81

Viitorul Constanta

1.07

allows per match

CFR 1907 Cluj

0.74

Viitorul Constanta

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CFR 1907 Cluj+0.00on par

Viitorul Constanta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFR 1907 Cluj ↓

Viitorul Constanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

CFR 1907 Cluj or draw

77%

CFR 1907 Cluj or Viitorul Constanta

74%

Draw or Viitorul Constanta

50%

Winning margin

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+

25%

Viitorul Constanta wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals

77%

CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals

43%

CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals

19%

Viitorul Constanta 1+ goals

60%

Viitorul Constanta 2+ goals

23%

Viitorul Constanta 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)

68%

Viitorul Constanta (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFR 1907 Cluj at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.74 · 156 matches

Viitorul Constanta away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.14 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.81 + Viitorul Constanta defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.48

Viitorul Constanta attack 1.07 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more

50%

level

26%

Viitorul Constanta scores more

23%

CFR 1907 Cluj at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CFR 1907 Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff