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CFR 1907 Cluj vs Universitatea Craiova — Liga I 2026

CFR 1907 Cluj
CFR 1907 Cluj
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Universitatea Craiova
Universitatea Craiova
M. Ilie 66'
A. Mitriță 51'
Ș. Baiaram 38'
3/16/2024Liga ILiga I · Championship Round - 1Stadionul Dr. Constantin Rădulescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 156+ matches

CFR 1907 Cluj46%
×Draw26%
Universitatea Craiova27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CFR 1907 Cluj
1.46
Universitatea Craiova
1.06

CFR 1907 Cluj creates 38% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 157 away

creates per match

CFR 1907 Cluj
1.81
Universitatea Craiova
1.38

allows per match

CFR 1907 Cluj
0.74
Universitatea Craiova
1.11

finishing

CFR 1907 Cluj+0.00on par
Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFR 1907 Cluj ↓

Universitatea Craiova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

CFR 1907 Cluj or draw
73%
CFR 1907 Cluj or Universitatea Craiova
74%
Draw or Universitatea Craiova
54%

Winning margin

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+
23%
Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals
77%
CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals
43%
CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals
18%
Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
65%
Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
29%
Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)
63%
Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFR 1907 Cluj at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.74 · 156 matches

Universitatea Craiova away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.11 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.81 + Universitatea Craiova defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.46

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.38 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more
46%
level
26%
Universitatea Craiova scores more
27%

CFR 1907 Cluj at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "CFR 1907 Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
C. DeacCFR 1907 ClujCFR 1907 Cluj · M
8.7

Match Events

38'
Ș. Baiaram
51'
A. Mitriță
59'
D. Avounou← P. Tachtsidis
59'
P. Michael← D. Bîrligea
66'
M. Ilie↳ C. Deac
70'
L. Houri← A. Mekvabishvili
72'
Laurenţiu Popescu
74'
Mihai Căpățînă
75'
O. El Kaddouri← K. Keita
75'
G. Zajkov← A. Ivan
80'
Juraj Badelj
82'
J. Marković← A. Mitriță
87'
Matei Cristian Ilie
89'
Omar El Kaddouri
89'
C. Manea← C. Deac
90+5'
Durel Avounou
90+3'
Lyes Houri

Possession

64%CFR

Shots

25CFR

Pass accuracy

55%CFR

Statistics

CFRUniversitatea
Overview
64%Possession36%
25Total Shots9
2.00Expected Goals (xG)1.65
13Corners2
10Fouls9
Shots
25Total Shots9
7On Target4
9Off Target3
9Blocked2
15Inside Box8
10Outside Box1
Passing
64%Possession36%
572Total Passes329
479Accurate Passes228
84%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
10Fouls9
2Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards0
4Offsides0

Match Recap: CFR 1907 Cluj vs Universitatea Craiova

Universitatea Craiova beat CFR 1907 Cluj 2-1 in Liga I on March 16, 2024.

Goals: Ș. Baiaram (38'), A. Mitriță (51'), M. Ilie (66').

CFR 1907 Cluj controlled possession (64%) and registered 25 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadionul Dr. Constantin Rădulescu in Cluj-Napoca.