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CFR 1907 Cluj vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe — Liga I 2018

CFR 1907 Cluj
CFR 1907 Cluj
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
10/25/2024Liga ILiga I · Round 14Stadionul Dr. Constantin Rădulescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

CFR 1907 Cluj50%
×Draw26%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CFR 1907 Cluj
1.53
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
0.96

CFR 1907 Cluj creates 59% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 135 away

creates per match

CFR 1907 Cluj
1.81
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.18

allows per match

CFR 1907 Cluj
0.74
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.25

finishing

CFR 1907 Cluj+0.00on par
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFR 1907 Cluj ↓

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

CFR 1907 Cluj or draw
76%
CFR 1907 Cluj or Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
74%
Draw or Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
50%

Winning margin

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+
26%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals
78%
CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals
45%
CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals
20%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1+ goals
62%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2+ goals
25%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)
68%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFR 1907 Cluj at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.74 · 156 matches

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.25 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.81 + Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.53

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe attack 1.18 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more
50%
level
26%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe scores more
24%

CFR 1907 Cluj at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CFR 1907 Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: CFR 1907 Cluj 3–3 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

CFR 1907 Cluj and Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe drew 3-3 in Liga I on October 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Dr. Constantin Rădulescu in Cluj-Napoca.