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CFR 1907 Cluj vs Petrolul Ploiesti — Liga I 2026

CFR 1907 Cluj
CFR 1907 Cluj
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Petrolul Ploiesti
Petrolul Ploiesti
L. Biliboc 81'
M. Korenica 62'
P. Papp 71'
2/21/2026Liga ILiga I · Round 28Stadionul Dr. Constantin Rădulescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

CFR 1907 Cluj48%
×Draw27%
Petrolul Ploiesti25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CFR 1907 Cluj
1.42
Petrolul Ploiesti
0.93

CFR 1907 Cluj creates 53% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

CFR 1907 Cluj
1.22
Petrolul Ploiesti
0.73

allows per match

CFR 1907 Cluj
1.12
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.62

finishing

CFR 1907 Cluj-0.22scores less
Petrolul Ploiesti+0.27scores more

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFR 1907 Cluj ↓

Petrolul Ploiesti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

CFR 1907 Cluj or draw
75%
CFR 1907 Cluj or Petrolul Ploiesti
73%
Draw or Petrolul Ploiesti
52%

Winning margin

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+
24%
Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals
76%
CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals
41%
CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals
17%
Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals
61%
Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals
24%
Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)
66%
Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFR 1907 Cluj at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.12 · 5 matches

Petrolul Ploiesti away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.62 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.22 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.42

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 0.73 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more
48%
level
27%
Petrolul Ploiesti scores more
25%

CFR 1907 Cluj at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CFR 1907 Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

49
L. BilibocCFR 1907 ClujCFR 1907 Cluj · M
8.0

Match Events

37'
Matei Ilie
46'
R. Pop← A. Botogan
50'
Meriton Korenica
58'
G. Grozav← A. Chica-Rosa
59'
R. Hermann← V. Gheorghe
62'
M. Korenica↳ A. Paun
67'
L. Zahovic← A. Paun
71'
P. Papp↳ R. Pop
77'
Damjan Đoković
77'
Yohan Roche
78'
Alibek Aliev
80'
A. Fica← K. Muhar
80'
N. Boateng← M. Dulca
81'
L. Biliboc↳ A. Abeid
83'
D. Dongmo← A. Dumitrescu
88'
M. Huja← A. Aliev

Possession

65%CFR

Shots

26CFR

Pass accuracy

53%CFR

Statistics

CFRPetrolul
Overview
65%Possession35%
26Total Shots9
1.28Expected Goals (xG)0.40
6Corners3
8Fouls10
Shots
26Total Shots9
8On Target3
11Off Target4
7Blocked2
16Inside Box3
10Outside Box6
Passing
65%Possession35%
543Total Passes299
462Accurate Passes221
85%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
8Fouls10
4Yellow Cards1
1Offsides3

Liga I: CFR 1907 Cluj 2–1 Petrolul Ploiesti

CFR 1907 Cluj beat Petrolul Ploiesti 2-1 in Liga I on February 21, 2026.

Goals: M. Korenica (62'), P. Papp (71'), L. Biliboc (81').

CFR 1907 Cluj controlled possession (65%) and registered 26 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadionul Dr. Constantin Rădulescu in Cluj-Napoca.