CFR 1907 Cluj 2–0 GAZ Metan Medias: Result & Stats

CFR 1907 Cluj

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

GAZ Metan Medias

7/13/2020

Liga I · Championship Round - 7Stadionul Dr. Constantin Rădulescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

CFR 1907 Cluj58%

×Draw24%

GAZ Metan Medias18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CFR 1907 ClujExpected goals in this matchGAZ Metan Medias

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.81

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.70

GAZ Metan Medias

0.81

CFR 1907 Cluj creates 110% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 76 away

1.81

creates per match

0.89

0.74

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.81

GAZ Metan Medias

0.89

allows per match

CFR 1907 Cluj

0.74

GAZ Metan Medias

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CFR 1907 Cluj+0.00on par

GAZ Metan Medias+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFR 1907 Cluj ↓

GAZ Metan Medias →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

CFR 1907 Cluj or draw

82%

CFR 1907 Cluj or GAZ Metan Medias

76%

Draw or GAZ Metan Medias

42%

Winning margin

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+

33%

GAZ Metan Medias wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals

82%

CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals

51%

CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals

24%

GAZ Metan Medias 1+ goals

56%

GAZ Metan Medias 2+ goals

19%

GAZ Metan Medias 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)

77%

GAZ Metan Medias (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFR 1907 Cluj at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.74 · 156 matches

GAZ Metan Medias away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.81 + GAZ Metan Medias defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.70

GAZ Metan Medias attack 0.89 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more

58%

level

24%

GAZ Metan Medias scores more

18%

CFR 1907 Cluj at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "CFR 1907 Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff