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CFR 1907 Cluj vs FC Clinceni — Liga I 2018

CFR 1907 Cluj
CFR 1907 Cluj
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Clinceni
FC Clinceni
11/2/2019Liga ILiga I · Round 15Stadionul Dr. Constantin Rădulescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

CFR 1907 Cluj63%
×Draw22%
FC Clinceni16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CFR 1907 Cluj
1.90
FC Clinceni
0.82

CFR 1907 Cluj creates 132% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 59 away

creates per match

CFR 1907 Cluj
1.81
FC Clinceni
0.90

allows per match

CFR 1907 Cluj
0.74
FC Clinceni
1.98

finishing

CFR 1907 Cluj+0.00on par
FC Clinceni+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFR 1907 Cluj ↓

FC Clinceni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

CFR 1907 Cluj or draw
84%
CFR 1907 Cluj or FC Clinceni
78%
Draw or FC Clinceni
37%

Winning margin

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+
37%
FC Clinceni wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals
85%
CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals
56%
CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals
29%
FC Clinceni 1+ goals
56%
FC Clinceni 2+ goals
20%
FC Clinceni 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)
80%
FC Clinceni (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFR 1907 Cluj at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.74 · 156 matches

FC Clinceni away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.81 + FC Clinceni defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.90

FC Clinceni attack 0.90 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more
63%
level
22%
FC Clinceni scores more
16%

CFR 1907 Cluj at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "CFR 1907 Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CFR 1907 Cluj vs FC Clinceni

CFR 1907 Cluj beat FC Clinceni 3-0 in Liga I on November 2, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Dr. Constantin Rădulescu in Cluj-Napoca.