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CFR 1907 Cluj vs FC Botosani — Liga I 2026

CFR 1907 Cluj
CFR 1907 Cluj
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Botosani
FC Botosani
8/25/2024Liga ILiga I · Round 7Stadionul Dr. Constantin Rădulescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 156+ matches

CFR 1907 Cluj54%
×Draw25%
FC Botosani21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CFR 1907 Cluj
1.61
FC Botosani
0.89

CFR 1907 Cluj creates 81% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 158 away

creates per match

CFR 1907 Cluj
1.81
FC Botosani
1.03

allows per match

CFR 1907 Cluj
0.74
FC Botosani
1.42

finishing

CFR 1907 Cluj+0.00on par
FC Botosani+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFR 1907 Cluj ↓

FC Botosani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

CFR 1907 Cluj or draw
79%
CFR 1907 Cluj or FC Botosani
75%
Draw or FC Botosani
46%

Winning margin

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+
29%
FC Botosani wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals
80%
CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals
48%
CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals
22%
FC Botosani 1+ goals
59%
FC Botosani 2+ goals
22%
FC Botosani 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)
72%
FC Botosani (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFR 1907 Cluj at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.74 · 156 matches

FC Botosani away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.42 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.81 + FC Botosani defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.61

FC Botosani attack 1.03 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more
54%
level
25%
FC Botosani scores more
21%

CFR 1907 Cluj at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "CFR 1907 Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: CFR 1907 Cluj 3–0 FC Botosani

CFR 1907 Cluj beat FC Botosani 3-0 in Liga I on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Dr. Constantin Rădulescu in Cluj-Napoca.