CFR 1907 Cluj 1–0 Dinamo Moscow: Result & Stats

CFR 1907 Cluj

1 – 0

Dinamo Moscow

6/26/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Peter Lisec Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

CFR 1907 Cluj44%

×Draw25%

Dinamo Moscow31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CFR 1907 ClujExpected goals in this matchDinamo Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.23

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.52

Dinamo Moscow

1.23

CFR 1907 Cluj creates 24% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.60

creates per match

1.45

1.00

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.60

Dinamo Moscow

1.45

allows per match

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.00

Dinamo Moscow

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CFR 1907 Cluj+0.00on par

Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFR 1907 Cluj ↓

Dinamo Moscow →

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

CFR 1907 Cluj or draw

69%

CFR 1907 Cluj or Dinamo Moscow

75%

Draw or Dinamo Moscow

56%

Winning margin

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+

22%

Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals

78%

CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals

45%

CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals

20%

Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals

71%

Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals

35%

Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)

59%

Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CFR 1907 Cluj at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Dinamo Moscow away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.60 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.52

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.45 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more

44%

level

25%

Dinamo Moscow scores more

31%

CFR 1907 Cluj at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "CFR 1907 Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff