CFR 1907 Cluj 2–3 CS Universitatea Craiova

CFR 1907 Cluj

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

CS Universitatea Craiova

Paulo Vinicius 70'

C. Deac 60'

A. Cicâldău 87'

V. Mihăilă 55'

E. Koljić 9'

6/28/2020

Liga I · Championship Round - 5Stadionul Dr. Constantin Rădulescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 156+ matches

CFR 1907 Cluj46%

×Draw26%

CS Universitatea Craiova27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CFR 1907 ClujExpected goals in this matchCS Universitatea Craiova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.06

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.46

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.06

CFR 1907 Cluj creates 38% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 157 away

1.81

creates per match

1.38

0.74

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.81

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.38

allows per match

CFR 1907 Cluj

0.74

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CFR 1907 Cluj+0.00on par

CS Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFR 1907 Cluj ↓

CS Universitatea Craiova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

CFR 1907 Cluj or draw

73%

CFR 1907 Cluj or CS Universitatea Craiova

74%

Draw or CS Universitatea Craiova

54%

Winning margin

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+

23%

CS Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals

77%

CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals

43%

CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals

18%

CS Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

65%

CS Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

29%

CS Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)

63%

CS Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFR 1907 Cluj at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.74 · 156 matches

CS Universitatea Craiova away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.11 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.81 + CS Universitatea Craiova defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.46

CS Universitatea Craiova attack 1.38 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more

46%

level

26%

CS Universitatea Craiova scores more

27%

CFR 1907 Cluj at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "CFR 1907 Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

9'

31'

52'

55'

59'

59'

M. Rondón← D. Đoković

60'

C. Deac↳ M. Rondón

70'

Paulo Vinicius↳ C. Deac

71'

Gustavo Vagenin← D. Nistor

74'

C. Bărbuț← A. Ivan

82'

U. Ćosić← M. Bălașa

82'

B. Vătăjelu← Ș. Vlădoiu

83'

Petrescu D.

87'

A. Cicâldău↳ V. Mihăilă

89'

L. Traoré← B. Omrani

89'

A. Chipciu← M. Bordeianu

90'

L. Traore

90+5'

M. Pigliacelli

Possession

Shots

Statistics

CFRCS

Overview

55%Possession45%

13Total Shots11

9Corners4

12Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots11

6On Target9

7Off Target2

Passing

55%Possession45%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2