Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

CFC Hertha vs Victoria Seelow — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

CFC Hertha
CFC Hertha
CANC
12:00
Victoria Seelow
Victoria Seelow
11/29/2020Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 13Sportplatz Sömmeringstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

CFC Hertha64%
×Draw19%
Victoria Seelow17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CFC Hertha
2.34
Victoria Seelow
1.11

CFC Hertha creates 111% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 18 away

creates per match

CFC Hertha
1.91
Victoria Seelow
0.89

allows per match

CFC Hertha
1.33
Victoria Seelow
2.78

finishing

CFC Hertha+0.00on par
Victoria Seelow+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFC Hertha ↓

Victoria Seelow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

CFC Hertha or draw
83%
CFC Hertha or Victoria Seelow
81%
Draw or Victoria Seelow
36%

Winning margin

CFC Hertha wins by 2+
42%
Victoria Seelow wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

CFC Hertha 1+ goals
90%
CFC Hertha 2+ goals
67%
CFC Hertha 3+ goals
41%
Victoria Seelow 1+ goals
67%
Victoria Seelow 2+ goals
30%
Victoria Seelow 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

CFC Hertha (draw refunded)
79%
Victoria Seelow (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFC Hertha at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.33 · 46 matches

Victoria Seelow away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFC Hertha attack 1.91 + Victoria Seelow defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.34

Victoria Seelow attack 0.89 + CFC Hertha defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

CFC Hertha scores more
64%
level
19%
Victoria Seelow scores more
17%

CFC Hertha at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "CFC Hertha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CFC Hertha face Victoria Seelow (Oberliga - Nordost-Nord)

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord returns with CFC Hertha hosting Victoria Seelow. Match starts November 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

CFC Hertha host Victoria Seelow at Sportplatz Sömmeringstraße.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.