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CFC Hertha vs Tennis Borussia — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

CFC Hertha
CFC Hertha
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Tennis Borussia
Tennis Borussia
7/30/2023Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 1Sportplatz Sömmeringstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

CFC Hertha51%
×Draw21%
Tennis Borussia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CFC Hertha
2.06
Tennis Borussia
1.47

CFC Hertha creates 40% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 45 away

creates per match

CFC Hertha
1.91
Tennis Borussia
1.60

allows per match

CFC Hertha
1.33
Tennis Borussia
2.22

finishing

CFC Hertha+0.00on par
Tennis Borussia+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFC Hertha ↓

Tennis Borussia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

CFC Hertha or draw
72%
CFC Hertha or Tennis Borussia
79%
Draw or Tennis Borussia
49%

Winning margin

CFC Hertha wins by 2+
30%
Tennis Borussia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

CFC Hertha 1+ goals
87%
CFC Hertha 2+ goals
61%
CFC Hertha 3+ goals
34%
Tennis Borussia 1+ goals
77%
Tennis Borussia 2+ goals
43%
Tennis Borussia 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

CFC Hertha (draw refunded)
65%
Tennis Borussia (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFC Hertha at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.33 · 46 matches

Tennis Borussia away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.22 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFC Hertha attack 1.91 + Tennis Borussia defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.06

Tennis Borussia attack 1.60 + CFC Hertha defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

CFC Hertha scores more
51%
level
21%
Tennis Borussia scores more
28%

CFC Hertha at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "CFC Hertha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CFC Hertha vs Tennis Borussia

Tennis Borussia beat CFC Hertha 2-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on July 30, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Sömmeringstraße in Berlin.