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CF Talavera vs Real Valladolid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

CF Talavera
CF Talavera
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Real Valladolid II
Real Valladolid II
10/29/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Estadio El Prado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

CF Talavera40%
×Draw27%
Real Valladolid II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Talavera
1.31
Real Valladolid II
1.15

CF Talavera creates 14% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 31 away

creates per match

CF Talavera
1.02
Real Valladolid II
1.16

allows per match

CF Talavera
1.15
Real Valladolid II
1.61

finishing

CF Talavera+0.00on par
Real Valladolid II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Talavera ↓

Real Valladolid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

CF Talavera or draw
67%
CF Talavera or Real Valladolid II
73%
Draw or Real Valladolid II
60%

Winning margin

CF Talavera wins by 2+
18%
Real Valladolid II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

CF Talavera 1+ goals
73%
CF Talavera 2+ goals
38%
CF Talavera 3+ goals
14%
Real Valladolid II 1+ goals
68%
Real Valladolid II 2+ goals
32%
Real Valladolid II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

CF Talavera (draw refunded)
55%
Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Talavera at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.15 · 55 matches

Real Valladolid II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Talavera attack 1.02 + Real Valladolid II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

Real Valladolid II attack 1.16 + CF Talavera defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

CF Talavera scores more
40%
level
27%
Real Valladolid II scores more
33%

CF Talavera at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "CF Talavera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CF Talavera vs Real Valladolid II

Real Valladolid II beat CF Talavera 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 29, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Prado in Talavera de la Reina.