CF Talavera 1–1 Racing Santander: Result & Stats

CF Talavera

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Racing Santander

Rodrigo Farofa 71'

Pablo Torre 36'

3/6/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Estadio El Prado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CF Talavera31%

×Draw27%

Racing Santander41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF TalaveraExpected goals in this matchRacing Santander

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.31

CF Talavera

1.11

Racing Santander

1.31

Racing Santander creates 18% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 19 away

1.02

creates per match

1.47

1.15

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

CF Talavera

1.02

Racing Santander

1.47

allows per match

CF Talavera

1.15

Racing Santander

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CF Talavera+0.00on par

Racing Santander+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Talavera ↓

Racing Santander →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

CF Talavera or draw

59%

CF Talavera or Racing Santander

73%

Draw or Racing Santander

69%

Winning margin

CF Talavera wins by 2+

12%

Racing Santander wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

CF Talavera 1+ goals

67%

CF Talavera 2+ goals

30%

CF Talavera 3+ goals

10%

Racing Santander 1+ goals

73%

Racing Santander 2+ goals

38%

Racing Santander 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

CF Talavera (draw refunded)

43%

Racing Santander (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Talavera at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.15 · 55 matches

Racing Santander away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Talavera attack 1.02 + Racing Santander defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.11

Racing Santander attack 1.47 + CF Talavera defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

CF Talavera scores more

31%

level

27%

Racing Santander scores more

41%

Racing Santander at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Racing Santander will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

21'

27'

36'

36'

55'

63'

Arturo Molina← S. Soko

66'

Jordi← Toño Calvo

70'

Borja Domínguez← Pablo Torre

70'

Manu Justo← C. Omoigui

71'

Rodrigo Farofa

74'

A. Fausto

75'

V. Romero

79'

Álvaro Bustos← Marco Camús

79'

Yeray Cabanzón← Fausto Tienza

85'

Choco

90+3'

Edmílson Santos← Rodrigo Farofa

CF

Racing

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Farofa

Manager: Víctor Cea

66'▲Jordi←▼Toño Calvo

90+3'▲Edmílson Santos←▼Rodrigo Farofa

CF Talavera substitutes

JordiSantosPeralesEscalanteN'DiAñónIsmaelRusanovMonroyRussóMiñoRuiz

Manager: Guillermo Fernández

63'▲Arturo Molina←▼S. Soko

70'▲Borja Domínguez←▼Pablo Torre

70'▲Manu Justo←▼C. Omoigui

79'▲Álvaro Bustos←▼Marco Camús

79'▲Yeray Cabanzón←▼Fausto Tienza

Racing Santander substitutes

MolinaDomínguezJustoBustosCabanzónLópezHarperVázquezDíazBobadillaMarcos

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: CF Talavera 1–1 Racing Santander

CF Talavera and Racing Santander drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 6, 2022.

Goals: Pablo Torre (36'), Rodrigo Farofa (71').

The match was played at Estadio El Prado in Talavera de la Reina.

CF Talavera vs Racing Santander — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: CF Talavera 1–1 Racing Santander