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CF Talavera vs Ponferradina — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

CF Talavera
CF Talavera
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ponferradina
Ponferradina
10/11/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Estadio El Prado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

CF Talavera32%
×Draw31%
Ponferradina37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Talavera
0.94
Ponferradina
1.05

Ponferradina creates 12% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 57 away

creates per match

CF Talavera
1.02
Ponferradina
0.95

allows per match

CF Talavera
1.15
Ponferradina
0.86

finishing

CF Talavera+0.00on par
Ponferradina+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Talavera ↓

Ponferradina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

CF Talavera or draw
63%
CF Talavera or Ponferradina
69%
Draw or Ponferradina
68%

Winning margin

CF Talavera wins by 2+
11%
Ponferradina wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

CF Talavera 1+ goals
61%
CF Talavera 2+ goals
24%
CF Talavera 3+ goals
7%
Ponferradina 1+ goals
65%
Ponferradina 2+ goals
28%
Ponferradina 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

CF Talavera (draw refunded)
46%
Ponferradina (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Talavera at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.15 · 55 matches

Ponferradina away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.86 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Talavera attack 1.02 + Ponferradina defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.94

Ponferradina attack 0.95 + CF Talavera defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

CF Talavera scores more
32%
level
31%
Ponferradina scores more
37%

Ponferradina at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ponferradina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CF Talavera vs Ponferradina

Ponferradina beat CF Talavera 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 11, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio El Prado in Talavera de la Reina.