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CF Talavera vs Melilla — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

CF Talavera
CF Talavera
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Melilla
Melilla
10/25/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 5Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2Estadio El Prado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

CF Talavera40%
×Draw28%
Melilla32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Talavera
1.25
Melilla
1.08

CF Talavera creates 16% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

CF Talavera
1.42
Melilla
1.00

allows per match

CF Talavera
1.17
Melilla
1.08

finishing

CF Talavera+0.00on par
Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Talavera ↓

Melilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

CF Talavera or draw
68%
CF Talavera or Melilla
72%
Draw or Melilla
60%

Winning margin

CF Talavera wins by 2+
18%
Melilla wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

CF Talavera 1+ goals
71%
CF Talavera 2+ goals
36%
CF Talavera 3+ goals
13%
Melilla 1+ goals
66%
Melilla 2+ goals
29%
Melilla 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

CF Talavera (draw refunded)
56%
Melilla (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Talavera at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Melilla away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Talavera attack 1.42 + Melilla defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.25

Melilla attack 1.00 + CF Talavera defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

CF Talavera scores more
40%
level
28%
Melilla scores more
32%

CF Talavera at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "CF Talavera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 5: CF Talavera 1–2 Melilla

Melilla beat CF Talavera 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio El Prado in Talavera de la Reina.