CF Talavera 1–1 Don Benito: Result & Stats

CF Talavera

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Don Benito

11/8/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 4Estadio El Prado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

CF Talavera52%

×Draw27%

Don Benito21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF TalaveraExpected goals in this matchDon Benito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.79

CF Talavera

1.42

Don Benito

0.79

CF Talavera creates 80% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.42

creates per match

0.42

1.17

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

CF Talavera

1.42

Don Benito

0.42

allows per match

CF Talavera

1.17

Don Benito

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CF Talavera+0.00on par

Don Benito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Talavera ↓

Don Benito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

CF Talavera or draw

79%

CF Talavera or Don Benito

73%

Draw or Don Benito

48%

Winning margin

CF Talavera wins by 2+

26%

Don Benito wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

CF Talavera 1+ goals

76%

CF Talavera 2+ goals

41%

CF Talavera 3+ goals

17%

Don Benito 1+ goals

55%

Don Benito 2+ goals

19%

Don Benito 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

CF Talavera (draw refunded)

71%

Don Benito (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Talavera at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Don Benito away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Talavera attack 1.42 + Don Benito defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

Don Benito attack 0.42 + CF Talavera defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

CF Talavera scores more

52%

level

27%

Don Benito scores more

21%

CF Talavera at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "CF Talavera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff